A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
