Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
